Securing Critical Materials Supply: CO₂ → Graphite

Homeostasis’ Block-3 Reactor prototype. A material sample production workhorse, gas digestion testbed, and scale-up demonstrator.

Homeostasis’ Block-3 Reactor prototype. A material sample production workhorse, gas digestion testbed, and scale-up demonstrator.

Summary

We Need Graphite in the US. The United States will need approximately 1 million metric tons of graphite annually by 2030 to supply its planned battery manufacturing capacity [1, 9]. Today, domestic production in the US is less than 100,000 tons per year, with China controlling over 80% of global supply and processing [2]. Cumulative trade duties on Chinese graphite AAM have the potential to reach 105-160%, combining preliminary anti-dumping duties (93.5%) and countervailing duties (11.5%) imposed by the Department of Commerce, along with additional tariffs announced by the Trump administration, some of which remain on hold. Further, procurement law under the 2026 NDAA now prohibits sourcing batteries from foreign entities of concern beginning 2028 [3].

Current Methods are too Small, Slow, and Expensive. Existing production methods cannot close this gap. Natural graphite mining requires 5-15 years from permitting to production and depends on limited geological deposits. Synthetic graphite production from petroleum coke requires months-long production cycles at 2,500–3,000°C. Both approaches are capital-intensive for marginal capacity gains ($800M–$1Bn for a single 25–50 Kt/year facility), produce 10-20 tons of CO₂ per ton of graphite, and deliver material at $8-12/kg in North American markets. No combination of announced projects covers projected demand.

CO2 Conversion unlocks Massive, Low-Cost Supply. CO₂ conversion addresses the core constraints that incumbent methods cannot. Homeostasis converts industrial CO₂ emissions directly into battery-grade graphite via molten salt electrolysis, operating at 650-800°C with production cycles measured in days rather than months. The United States has over 50 million tons of CO₂ annually from industrial sources, which is more than sufficient feedstock to supply the entire domestic graphite market many times over. Our technoeconomic analysis supports a selling price of <$6/kg at commercial scale, with capital requirements roughly one-third those of incumbent alternatives.

The Critical Materials Issue

Global graphite supply outlook by International Energy Agency [6]

Global graphite supply outlook by International Energy Agency [6]

1. Supply Chain Vulnerability & National Security Risk

The United States faces a severe national security risk due to its near-complete dependence on foreign sources for graphite, a material essential to lithium-ion batteries and therefore critical to the energy transition. According to the latest data, China produces over 80% of the world's graphite and processes more than 90% of the world's graphite into the material used in virtually all EV battery anodes [5]. This creates a precarious supply situation at a time when demand is surging.

Graphite is classified as a critical material by the U.S. government due to both its economic importance and supply risk. The US's 2025 battery cell production capacity of 200 GWh/year already requires more graphite than the country can produce domestically. This cell production capacity represents roughly one-fifth of projected 2030 levels. With export restrictions imposed by China in late 2023 [5], the security of this supply chain is increasingly in question.